Three consecutive matches against AFC Champions League participating teams
4/2 Yokohama FM (A) 4/6 Kobe (H) 4/10 Urawa (H)
"Battle of Similarities"
Whether they have the true ability or not. It will be a great opportunity for Alberto Kyo to know his current position. It will be a three-match series against AFC Champions League (ACL) participating clubs (Yokohama F.Marinos, Vissel Kobe, Urawa Reds).
It is also a battle between similar entities.
We share the ideology of being the protagonist, no matter who the opponent is. The tactics associated with it are also similar. We carefully connect passes from the back, constantly circulating possession and recovery of the ball in the opponent's territory, and keep attacking. That is the ideal image.
The signboard represents a high-speed transition characterized by high-quality possession based on positional play and counter-pressing. It can be said that these are the teams of the modern era, where both sides of a coin are represented. Of course, this also applies to Kawasaki Frontale, the J1 champion that we faced in the opening match.
You can see it from the numbers. Looking back at the average ball possession rate per game last season, Yokohama FM had 60.0% (1st place), Kobe had 55.0% (4th place), Kawasaki had 54.6% (5th place), and Urawa had 54.0% (6th place), all consistently ranking high. This season, Kobe has 59.1% (1st place), Yokohama FM has 54.6% (3rd place), Urawa has 52.2% (tied for 5th place). And Tokyo, under the new coach, has joined the "possessing" side from the "non-possessing" side.
(Source: [J.League Official] Looking back on the 2021 season with data)
(Season data as of March 25, JSTATS)
The battle scene of this three-game series is probably different from that of a winning streak. In addition to the work of bypassing the pressing, a big focus will be on how to disrupt the enemy's passing work. In that sense, the experience of the opening game that gave Kawasaki a hard time should be of some help until the end.
On the other hand, it is unknown how much the level of strength can be maintained in the consecutive matches in three days. On the other hand, the ACL group has already experienced consecutive matches. In addition, teams like Yokohama FM have been promoting new talents to the starting lineup one after another during this process and have gained a corresponding sense of accomplishment. In that sense, it is a competition where overall strength, including the player roster, is severely tested.
If you are looking for the toughest opponent at this point, it would be Yokohama, who we will face in the first match of the three-game series. Both their offense and defense are still strong. They run, they run a lot. Their average running distance and sprint count per game are both ranked 3rd in the league. They are a different type of opponent from Kobe and Urawa, using their running ability as a weapon.
This season, Tokyo's possession rate of the ball is high, but what is troublesome for them may be the counterattack, which can be called the fastest in J1. When they attack, they send fast wingers behind the defensive line and quickly go for the kill. In fact, even Kawasaki was defeated by their lightning-fast counterattack. If they carelessly lose the ball in the midfield, it could be fatal.
Even if the full-back is at a disadvantage in a one-on-one situation with the winger, the risk of conceding a goal increases significantly. Kawasaki's left-back, Noborizato, was outplayed by the opposing winger, Elber, resulting in multiple goals conceded. Additionally, attention should be paid to defending against crosses. The winger from the opposite side suddenly appears from outside the defensive line's field of vision to attempt a finish when the ball is crossed, which is a troublesome situation.
On the left, Ryoya OGAWA is of course important, but the performance of the right side back who enters is the key. Yuto NAGATOMO, who has been through countless battles, has returned from the national team.
Ryoma Watanabe does not have enough experience in this position, so it is uncertain how well he can adapt. This includes the role of covering as a center back, which is crucial for preventing goals.
No, the difficulty of sealing the wings should be the same for Yokohama FM. If we let Kazuya KONNO on the right and Adailton on the left play freely, it won't end well. The destructive power of both wings is also a strength of Tokyo. Furthermore, they have a rocket pass that can penetrate the backline in one shot and a diagonal pass to the opposite side. Moreover, there are three players (Masato MORISHIGE, Yasuki KIMOTO, Takuya AOKI) who can make those passes.
If we dare to focus on one aspect of the decisive battle, it would be the offensive and defensive play between the wings and the backs, revolving around the "width and depth" of the pitch. If both teams are determined not to retreat and are prepared to exchange blows on a shallow line, it will be a continuous thrill and suspense. Tokyo, who is riding the momentum of three consecutive victories, would hope for a flashy shootout.
The next Kobe match is difficult to predict. After all, the opponent has not gained any points since the opening and has just changed their coach. The game plan itself is expected to continue, but the starting lineup and formation are fluid. On the other hand, Tokyo will likely make changes to the starting lineup against Yokohama FM, as they only have three days of rest.
When it comes to Kobe, regardless of player selection or formation, the build-up goes through the pivot. Sergi Samper was the compass. However, due to injury in the ACL playoffs, there is a high probability that Takahiro Ohgihara, a new force, will take on that role. Ohgihara's use as a pivot has already been tested.
Kobe's ball possession rate is still high this season. However, compared to last season, it takes more time and effort to build up. This is partly due to the departure of Thomas FERMAREN, who was able to deliver high-quality passes from the back, increasing the burden on the pivot. When Tokyo switches to a defensive strategy, that should be one of the targets. It's about shutting down the pivot.
The most dangerous presence is Andres INIESTA, but it would be good to stop him before the ball reaches him. It is the role of the inside midfielder to "hunt" Samper. If we can gain an advantage in this offense and defense, the flow will naturally lean towards Tokyo. Matsuki Kuryu and Shuto ABE are sharp in their approach and tough and tenacious in the battle for the ball. There is a possibility of changing the midfield personnel and formation only three days after the previous match, but the mission should remain the same no matter who is on the pitch.
Compared to last season, the intensity of Kobe's press has dropped, which is a tailwind. It is likely that they will make adjustments during the break, but it may not return to the level of good form easily. In the first place, Tokyo has already experienced fierce press against Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga F.C. Once they start attacking, they believe they can create plenty of chances.
The final match of the 3-game series is a decisive battle against Urawa. The enemy commander, Ricardo RODRIGUEZ, also attracts attention for being from the same country as Albert. Both are expected to have hidden expectations.
Urawa stumbled with no wins in the first 4 matches of the season, but they secured a victory in the 3rd match against Shonan Bellmare and had a big win of 4-1 against Júbilo Iwata in the 5th match. They entered the break period with a rising tide of momentum.
However, I have a dilemma. It's the selection of the lone striker. Who should I put here? If I prioritize finishing ability, the main gun Kasper JUNKER is the only choice, but there was a concern that it would be difficult to press from the front line. Taking that into consideration, I used the pressing machine Takahiro AKIMOTO from the opening game and obtained a high-intensity offense and defense, but now I am troubled by a lack of finishing ability. Akimoto is not a natural goal scorer.
In the Iwata match, Junker, who was used as a starter, scored as expected, and we were able to achieve a successful victory by bringing in Akimoto in the second half. However, it is unlikely that this relay system is a solution. This time, I wonder if Akimoto will be used as a starter. If the press intensity is not enough, Tokyo will likely pass the ball around easily.
Then, what about the finishing ability? He is gaining a new solution. It is David MOBERG who made a shocking debut in the Iwata match. He is not a goal scorer, but he is a winger with finishing ability. Once he has the ball, he will quickly take it to the finish. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, it is certain that he is a person to be careful of, along with the attacking midfielder Ebara.
In addition, in the match against Iwata, the Tokushima Vortis adopted the variable system that was attempted during the time when they were led by the team. The defensive formation is 4-4-2, and the offensive formation transitions to a 3-4-2-1 where one side full-back pushes up and the same side midfielder narrows down to the center to take on one corner of the double shadow. When attempting to press from the front line, it seems necessary to keep in mind that there is such a tactic and respond accordingly.
However, Rodriguez is not the type of leader who sticks to one way of doing things. Regardless of success or failure, he has a wide range of strategies. If necessary, he is not afraid to solidify the defense and hold on. This is a big difference from Albert. In any case, this is the last of the three consecutive matches. Not only the selection of players and formation, but also the enemy's plan is fluid. In order to secure victory, adaptability, including unforeseen circumstances and the bench, is essential.
In any case, this three-game series will not be easy. Both the starting lineup and the substitutes, as well as the bench, will be involved in a literal all-out battle. How to overcome this difficult challenge is worth paying attention to.
Text by Satoshi Hojo (Soccer Writer)
