Will the pattern of "weakness and prey" change?
The home team will be tested. FC Tokyo, who struggles against Sagan Tosu, is the opponent.
After all, they have lost 5 consecutive games in the league. They haven't won a single game since October 2019 before the coronavirus pandemic. During that time, the former coach who led Tosu was Myung Hwi KIM. This season is different. Under the new coach Kenta KAWAI, they are starting over and the lineup of key players has also changed significantly.
However, Sagan Tosu is still a dangerous opponent.
Regardless of offense or defense, the bold and precise style of play is the same as before (in the previous era). Even running ability is involved, and you can even see the traces of evolution. It's clear at a glance when you look at the numbers. The average running distance per game (125.1km) and the number of sprints (226) at the end of Sec. 9 are both in first place.
【Source】From the J.League official website
Of course, the positional play introduced during the Kinmae era continues. Each player changes their position while observing the movements of the defensive side and quickly advances the ball. The high average ball possession rate per game is also a reflection of this. 54.3% (as of the end of the 9th round) is the fourth highest number. This is despite the fact that many key players from last season have left.
While it was his first challenge in the J1 League, Coach Kawai is a bright and promising figure in modern football. He not only served as the coach of Ehime FC (then in J2), but also played a role in implementing positional play at Montedio Yamagata (J2) where he previously served as a coach. Additionally, he made no mistakes in strengthening the team.
The symbolic acquisitions would be Akito FUKUTA and Naoyuki FUJITA. Or should we say "return to their former club"? The former has already experienced positional play under a coach with Spanish roots while playing for Albirex Niigata, and the latter while playing for Cerezo Osaka. Moreover, the coach who influenced Fukuta is now leading Tokyo from this season, Albert PUIG ORTONEDA. Fukuta has become the new "brain" of the new Sagan.
Against an unchanged archenemy, how does Tokyo fare? In contrast to Tosu, they have completely revamped their game model. The banner raised by coach Albert PUIG ORTONEDA is "Position & Possession". The greater the difference from the conventional, the more the battle's composition can change significantly. It can be said that Tokyo's chance of victory lies there. The question is how much has changed.
The first focus will be on the build-up.
We are in the midst of a revolution. There is variation in skill level from game to game. Tosu's press is precise and powerful. How can we avoid it and penetrate the enemy's territory? There is both hope and anxiety.
When Tosu switches to defense, they relentlessly apply pressure from the front. Moreover, they almost always employ man-to-man marking during high pressing. They capture any player who is free on the ball side and do not allow easy exits. Then, they force the opponent to kick long balls and recover them, transitioning back to the attack.
The basic formation is 3-4-2-1, but it can change freely depending on the opponent. It means taking a position that is easy to penetrate from the front. Tokyo's formation is 4-3-3, so in defensive situations it becomes 3-4-1-2. This structure is similar to that of Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo, whom we played against in the 9th round.
Moreover, the transition between offense and defense is fast, and the movements to catch people are also quick. Even if the attacking side changes their positions finely, the players of Sapporo.D will follow them as they are. Naturally, it is difficult to create a free player. The attacking side has almost no positional advantage. One of the reasons why Tokyo had a hard time building up in the Sapporo game is also due to that.
There are two main ways to break through. One is to increase the tempo of the passing game and release the ball before being marked by the opponent. The other is to utilize space instead of relying on individuals. The target is behind the defensive line - sending players and the ball there to quickly turn the tables on the opponent.
Tokyo has been using the latter (second option) up to this point. Center-backs Masato Morishige and Yasuki Kimoto often send long passes behind the defensive line, which often leads to chances. However, good passes don't always find their target. When the opponent's press is strong, there is no room to aim, and the focus becomes more on escaping the danger zone for the time being.
In that case, the key is the first option. It is important to increase the tempo of the passing game and find an exit. In particular, the work of the midfield trio consisting of Takuya Aoki, Shuto Abe, and Kuryu Matsuki will be crucial. They will be required to participate in the build-up play and advance the ball while being tightly marked by the opponents. In other words, they will be responsible for opening up attacking routes in the center. The more opportunities they have, the more the game will tilt in Tokyo's favor.
Fortunately, there is also experience. We have already played against strong teams such as Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Kyoto Sanga, including the aforementioned Sapporo. How we can make use of that. At the very least, we should not be overwhelmed by the intensity - or so it should be.
And the second focus is how to seal Tosu's possession. For Tokyo's members, switching between offense and defense, competing for the ball, and second ball are desired. Although there is room for improvement in efficiently "trapping" points from the front, the intensity itself is extremely high. In that respect, it is rather Tokyo's "unchanging" strength.
By the way, the key to Kyoto's victory over unbeaten Tosu for the first time since the opening of the season was their ability to switch, win the ball, and win second balls. They rushed at Tosu with high-intensity attacking and defending from the kickoff, disrupting their game plan and securing a comfortable 3-1 victory. In a way, it can be said that both "unusual strengths" and "unchanging strengths" are necessary to defeat a formidable opponent.
By the way, Tokyo and Tosu have a strange similarity. Looking at the numbers at the end of the 9th round, Tokyo has scored 8 goals and conceded 5. On the other hand, Tosu has scored 9 goals and conceded 5. It's as if they are both solid defensively and make the most of their few opportunities.
Of course, the reality is different. The reason for Tosu's low score is not because there are not enough opportunities, but rather because there is a problem with the finishing touch to capitalize on those opportunities. On the other hand, in the case of Tokyo, there are few opportunities themselves, and the attacking line has not been able to fully capitalize on them. In fact, Tokyo's average number of shots per game at the end of the 9th round is second from the bottom. They are still in a situation where they are halfway through figuring out how to break through the enemy's defense after bringing the ball into the attacking zone.
Given these circumstances, will it be a low-scoring battle? Of course, set plays may also be one of the factors that determine the outcome. However, the biggest highlight is still the clash of strengths between the two teams. Which team will be able to overcome the opponent's fierce press and create numerous opportunities to reach the finish line?
The team that gains an advantage in the midfield battle is likely to be closer to victory. Tokyo's Aoki, Abe, Matsuki, and Tosu's Fukuda, Fujita, and Koizumi - their intense competition is captivating. From Tokyo's perspective, there are high expectations for rookie Matsuki, who graduated from high school. After all, he has no bitter memories of a five-game losing streak like veteran Nagatomo Yuto. His ability to perform brilliantly both in attack and defense should also become a new strength for Tokyo.
Will they really be able to defeat their archenemy? The answer will be revealed soon.
Text by Satoshi Hojo (Soccer Writer)
